Market Insight
Tony Jordan
2 January 2023

Market Insights 02/01/2023

A relatively muted day in the market yesterday whilst the EU met to have further discussions on a potential price cap.

Probably as expected it ended yet again without agreement and further talks are expected to take place next Monday.

Yesterday saw the TTF January contract settle at €137.53 (from €136.59) and the NBP January contract at 341.32p (from 339.05p).

Meanwhile temperatures remain low for the next few days before getting back to seasonal normal for the weekend. This should help calm the volatile spot market prices seen earlier in the week.

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 333mcm from Norway (333). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 47.3mcm (43.4) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Flows on Nord Stream are now a likely physical impossibility. Gas storage showing at 87.34% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 12.

This morning we see the January TTF contract at €135, DOWN €3 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF January €135, Summer €138 (vs €138 and €139)
Curve NBP January 341p, Summer 336p (vs 339p and 337p)
UK Gas NBP spot 353p (from 365p).
UK Power DA £361 (from £388).

UK power prices show the UK January Baseload contract at £370 (£400) and Summer at £300 (£300).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $81 ($78) and EUAs are at €89 (€90). Henry Hub is at $6.94 ($6.59) and JKM is at $33.35 ($32.93).