Market Insight
Tony Jordan
1 January 2023

Market Insights 01/01/2023

A turn in direction in yesterdays session as most contracts showed an upwards trend.

In responding to Canadas announcement on updated sanctions to Nord Stream 1 repairs, Russia commented it still had not seen the results of any investigation on the pipeline attacks from September, nor had any discussions around potential repairs to the pipeline. It also reaffirmed that a single string of the Nord Stream 2 AG pipeline was still possible to use.

The latest long term weather runs show a slightly colder end to December than the run from Monday but January unchanged at seasonal normal. Early next week is expected to, albeit for a day or so, be back above seasonal normal which with current temperatures could feel rather warm.

Yesterday saw the TTF January contract settle at €134.77 (from €131.51) and the NBP January contract at 337.13p (from 324.89p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 333mcm from Norway (334). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 47.2mcm (49.8) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Flows on Nord Stream are now a likely physical impossibility. Gas storage showing at 85.87% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 10.

This morning we see the January TTF contract at €129, DOWN €6 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF January €129, Summer €133 (vs €135 and €132)
Curve NBP January 337p, Summer 326p (vs 325p and 318p)
UK Gas NBP spot 337p (from 335p).
UK Power DA £366 (from £353).

UK power prices show the UK January Baseload contract at £335 (£339) and Summer at £289 (£290).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $81 ($81) and EUAs are at €86 (€87). Henry Hub is at $6.97 ($6.43) and JKM is at $39.27 ($33.39).