Market Insight
30 December 2022

Market Insights 30/12/2022

Markets continued their bearish trend yesterday, with the TTF Sum and Win 23 contracts joining the front month below the €100 marker.

The German energy regulator, who has been reporting weekly progress on the energy saving targets in recent months, has continued to show this is now being missed and are now behind the target set. This was mostly driven by the cold weather, but this appears to have ‘undone’ the savings seen earlier.

President Putin announced that he will sign a decree early next week in response to the price cap on Russian oil at $60, which could include direct threats to gas supplies.

The latest long term weather run shows a warmer than normal next two weeks before returning to around, or just below, seasonal normal through to early February.

Yesterday saw the TTF January contract settle at €91.94 (from €97.75) and the NBP January contract at 226.90p (from 241.95p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 334mcm from Norway (335). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.1mcm (37.1) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Flows on Nord Stream are now a likely physical impossibility. Gas storage showing at 83.02% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 14.

This morning we see the January TTF contract at €88, DOWN €4 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF January €88, Summer €95 (vs €92 and €101)
Curve NBP January 227p, Summer 233p (vs 242p and 245p)
UK Gas NBP spot 250p (from 220p).
UK Power DA £173 (from £207).

UK power prices show the UK January Baseload contract at £253 (£266) and Summer at £220 (£227).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $81 ($82) and EUAs are at €89 (€84). Henry Hub is at $5.00 ($5.33) and JKM is at $31.64 ($31.68).