Market Insight
Tony Jordan
29 December 2022

Market Insights 29/12/2022

Markets continued to show downside yesterday as the TTF front month traded below €100 for the first time in a while.

In a continued trend of capital being required by several energy businesses of late, Norways Equinor pumped some €3.5bn into its Danske Commodities trading business as it manages the market volatility and margin calls.

In the UK Octopus Energy completed its takeover of Bulb which continues to be opposed via legal challenges. The 1.6m customers transferred to Octopus potentially costing as much as £6.5bn to the taxpayer, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility. A legal challenge is due to be heard in February.

Yesterday saw the TTF January contract settle at €97.75 (from €105.69) and the NBP January contract at 241.95p (from 262.56p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 335mcm from Norway (338). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.1mcm (39.4) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Flows on Nord Stream are now a likely physical impossibility. Gas storage showing at 83.18% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 15.

This morning we see the January TTF contract at €95, DOWN €3 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF January €95, Summer €101 (vs €98 and €108)
Curve NBP January 242p, Summer 245p (vs 263p and 262p)
UK Gas NBP spot 220p (from 225p).
UK Power DA £207 (from £178).

UK power prices show the UK January Baseload contract at £266 (£298) and Summer at £227 (£244).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $82 ($80) and EUAs are at €84 (€84). Henry Hub is at $5.33 ($5.33) and JKM is at $31.68 ($34.92).