Market Insight
Tony Jordan
27 December 2022

Market Insights 27/12/2022

A strong bearish push to end the week across the board.

The updated warmer temperature outlook helped put relief into the market.

National Grid ESO Grid has put the coal plants back into test runs for today and tomorrow.

The EU will today once again reconvene around the table in an attempt to get a price cap over the line – having failed to agree on each occasion so far.

Friday saw the TTF January contract settle at €115.45 (from €134.77) and the NBP January contract at 288.42p (from 337.13p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 332mcm from Norway (333). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 42.0mcm (47.2) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Flows on Nord Stream are now a likely physical impossibility. Gas storage showing at 84.15% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 14.

This morning we see the January TTF contract at €117, UP €2 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF January €117, Summer €116 (vs €115 and €133)
Curve NBP January 288p, Summer 283p (vs 337p and 326p)
UK Gas NBP spot 275p (from 337p).
UK Power DA £160 (from £366).

UK power prices show the UK January Baseload contract at £310 (£335) and Summer at £260 (£289).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $79 ($81) and EUAs are at €84 (€86). Henry Hub is at $6.60 ($6.97) and JKM is at $35.58 ($39.27).