Market Insight
Tony Jordan
26 December 2022

Market Insights 26/12/2022

A continuation of the recent upward trend in price levels was seen yesterday as the cold weather starts to take hold and we see some unplanned outages in the Norwegian fleet.

Gas storage is now helping the supply side after a strong resistance to use it in the first two months of the winter as flows come under their usual winter pressures – but this year being the first without the ample Russian flows Europe has been used to and so a new test for the market to face into.

Yesterday saw the TTF January contract settle at €149.25 (from €138.49) and the NBP January contract at 374.49p (from 346.32p).

Oseberg joins Karsto on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 317mcm from Norway (333). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.2mcm (42.3) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Flows on Nord Stream are now a likely physical impossibility. Gas storage showing at 90.57% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 12.

This morning we see the January TTF contract at €156, UP €7 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF January €156, Summer €149 (vs €149 and €140)
Curve NBP January 374p, Summer 365p (vs 346p and 338p)
UK Gas NBP spot 370p (from 350p).
UK Power DA £364 (from £309).

UK power prices show the UK January Baseload contract at £500 (£495) and Summer at £325 (£305).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $77 ($79) and EUAs are at €88 (€88). Henry Hub is at $5.72 ($5.47) and JKM is at $33.35 ($32.85).