Market Insight
Tony Jordan
25 December 2022

Market Insights 25/12/2022

More bullish momentum continues into the market with spot and curve prices rising again in yesterdays session as we move deeper into winter delivery and contracts switch to a new forward month.

January remains a focal point of concern when it comes to cold temperatures and potential tightness around the supply/demand balance and is now our front month delivery contract.

Despite rising prices in recent days, no further immediate concerns in the UK power market showing for price spikes in the day ahead market as seen earlier in the week and a more ‘flat’ price can be seen across the day. On Tuesday the hourly price range for N2EX day ahead prices were £195-£1,066/MWh, whereas for today the range is £236-£456 to give a similar average over the day.

Yesterday saw the TTF January contract settle at €146.40 (from €136.17) and the NBP November contract at 369.65p (from 343.03p).

Kollsnes on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 324mcm from Norway (329). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.3mcm (38.6) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Flows on Nord Stream are now a likely physical impossibility. Gas storage showing at 93.19% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 11.

This morning we see the January TTF contract at €149, UP €3 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF January €149, Summer €145 (vs €146 and €136)
Curve NBP January 370p, Summer 354p (vs 343p and 330p)
UK Gas NBP spot 350p (from 340p).
UK Power DA £345 (from £331).

UK power prices show the UK January Baseload contract at £548 (£497) and Summer at £307 (£289).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $87 ($83) and EUAs are at €85 (€81). Henry Hub is at $6.93 ($7.24) and JKM is at $33.31 ($30.51).