Market Insight
Tony Jordan
22 December 2022

Market Insights 22/12/2022

A fairly steady end to the week along the curve after an interesting week of movement in both directions.

Whilst the arguments over oil price caps on Russian oil and of course the ongoing split of European countries over the structure of a gas price cap, the focus is very much on the very cold weather being experienced in the UK and Europe.

The UK is covered in snow this morning, with plummeting temperatures pushing spot prices to new highs not seen for some time. Today we see (spot) gas prices touching £4/therm and power prices averaging at nearly £600/MWh with the peak hours later this afternoon hitting as much as £1,600/MWh. This is likely to push National Grid ESO to once again dust off the levers available to them in order to help keep the system in balance.

Friday saw the TTF January contract settle at €139.11 (from €138.89) and the NBP January contract at 345.91p (from 349.59p).

Karsto remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 335mcm from Norway (326). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 42.6mcm (45.5) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Flows on Nord Stream are now a likely physical impossibility. Gas storage showing at 88.48% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 12.

This morning we see the January TTF contract at €133, DOWN €6 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF January €133, Summer €140 (vs €139 and €140)
Curve NBP January 346p, Summer 341p (vs 350p and 343p)
UK Gas NBP spot 390p (from 355p).
UK Power DA £571 (from £378).

UK power prices show the UK January Baseload contract at £440 (£487) and Summer at £304 (£310).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $76 ($76) and EUAs are at €88 (€89). Henry Hub is at $6.25 ($5.96) and JKM is at $33.37 ($34.30).