Market Insight
Tony Jordan
20 December 2022

Market Insights 20/12/2022

Yesterday UK markets showed some upward movement whilst the TTF market remained stable to bearish.

Temperatures turn cold(er) today, dipping to seasonal normal, before rising again for the next 10 days or so and the latest long-term forecast shows a cold end of November and start to December to be expected.

As Europe continues to consider a price cap, the Dutch regulator stated yesterday it is opposed to the idea which could have negative consequences including physical shortages. It said that market manipulation was not evidenced and that higher prices have ballooned investment in areas such as LNG capacity which now is heading towards Europe instead of Asia.

Yesterday saw the TTF December contract settle at €125.45 (from €125.86) and the NBP November contract at 311.42p (from 305.44p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 328mcm from Norway (318). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.7mcm (36.7) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Flows on Nord Stream are now a likely physical impossibility. Gas storage showing at 95.02% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 11.

This morning we see the December TTF contract at €133, UP €8 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF December €133, Summer €129 (vs €125 and €130)
Curve NBP December 311p, Summer 304p (vs 305p and 295p)
UK Gas NBP spot 130p (from 160p).
UK Power DA £161 (from (£96).

UK power prices show the UK December Baseload contract at £338 (£320) and Summer at £265 (£260).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $95 ($96) and EUAs are at €76 (€77). Henry Hub is at $5.98 ($6.27) and JKM is at $27.82 ($29.11).