After what first appeared to be a very bullish start to the week, the session was rather muted with very small deltas to Fridays close by the end of the day.
The Dutch Gate LNG terminal reported operational issues which reduced its send out by 990 MWh/hr yesterday. No updates appeared on their website early this morning to suggest the issue had yet been resolved.
The latest overnight long term weather runs show an even colder outlook to that of late last week in the days and weeks ahead with temperatures significantly below seasonal normal until mid-January. This is a vast contrast from the outlooks seen just two weeks ago where the outlook was for a ‘seasonal normal’ December. This will no doubt put the markets under pressure.
Yesterday saw the TTF January contract settle at €134.70 (from €135.56) and the NBP November contract at 335.38p (from 336.31p).
No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 336mcm from Norway (337). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.8mcm (41.3) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Flows on Nord Stream are now a likely physical impossibility. Gas storage showing at 91.27% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 14.
This morning we see the January TTF contract at €137, UP €2 to the previous settlement.
A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF January €137, Summer €136 (vs €135 and €138)
Curve NBP January 335p, Summer 330p (vs 336p and 332p)
UK Gas NBP spot 321p (from 351p).
UK Power DA £316 (from £293).
UK power prices show the UK January Baseload contract at £515 (£525) and Summer at £300 (£298).
In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $83 ($86) and EUAs are at €87 (€88). Henry Hub is at $5.58 ($6.28) and JKM is at $33.19 ($31.76).