Market Insight
Tony Jordan
17 December 2022

Market Insights 17/12/2022

A bearish end to the week last week, just as temperatures start to fall, which could mean a turn for the week ahead to be expected.

On Friday the EU continued its talks on a gas price cap with consideration for a lower value to be used after no agreement was met last time around, although several countries still disagree any cap is needed. A further meeting is scheduled for 13th December.

Freeport LNG has once again pushed back the date of its restart to the end of the year, having recently been pushed back from mid-November to mid-December.

The G7 agreed on Friday to cap the price of Russian oil to $60 (Brent is currently touching £90). Russia responded by saying they would only export oil to countries who did not impose such terms – which could result in them reducing output overall.

Friday saw the TTF January contract settle at €135.56 (from €139.26) and the NBP November contract at 336.31p (from 344.20p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 337mcm from Norway (327). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 41.3mcm (40.3) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Flows on Nord Stream are now a likely physical impossibility. Gas storage showing at 91.56% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 12.

This morning we see the January TTF contract at €148, UP €12 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF January €148, Summer €138 (vs €136 and €140)
Curve NBP January 336p, Summer 332p (vs 344p and 341p)
UK Gas NBP spot 351p (from 320p).
UK Power DA £293 (from £325).

UK power prices show the UK January Baseload contract at £525 (£540) and Summer at £298 (£304).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $86 ($87) and EUAs are at €88 (€85). Henry Hub is at $6.28 ($6.74) and JKM is at $31.76 ($33.78).