Market Insight
Tony Jordan
16 December 2022

Market Insights 16/12/2022

A fairly level day for the curve, but the prompt (spot) prices continue their upward trend as as the latest temperature forecasts show continued ‘below seasonal normal’ levels to be be expected in the days and weeks ahead. The latest long-term run shows the UK will not see seasonal normal to be expected until mid-January.

Meanwhile a Capacity Market notice was issued and subsequently cancelled yesterday closely followed by the same for the new Demand Flexibility Scheme which took the media by storm. Our own Tony Jordan was invited to speak with Sky News on the subject whilst the ‘on or off’ decision was awaited.

Today we see a similar picture for the UK power market with the LOLP (Loss of Load Probability) sitting at a similar level seen for yesterdays evening peak at 88% (which was later scaled back below 5%), so we may see a repeat of potential National Grid ESO warnings today.

Yesterday saw the TTF December contract settle at €123.28 (from €124.37) and the NBP November contract at 291.28p (from 288.46p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 327mcm from Norway (327). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.7mcm (41.4) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Flows on Nord Stream are now a likely physical impossibility. Gas storage showing at 93.90% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 15 (5 expected today).

This morning we see the December TTF contract at €123, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF December €123, Summer €129 (vs €123 and €131)
Curve NBP December 291p, Summer 311p (vs 288p and 312p)
UK Gas NBP spot 285p (from 225p).
UK Power DA £349 (from £317).

UK power prices show the UK December Baseload contract at £303 (£310) and Summer at £277 (£270).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $83 ($84) and EUAs are at €79 (€79). Henry Hub is at $7.20 ($7.02) and JKM is at $30.28 ($29.96).