Market Insight
Tony Jordan
15 December 2022

Market Insights 15/12/2022

After a bullish start, we saw a turn back to a softer bear market in yesterdays session.

Norways Government announced it will expand the Oseberg field which will result in increased exports to Europe, although the results will not be seen until 2026.

TotalEnergies announced it was cutting its investment in the UK North Sea as a direct result of the recent announcement to increase the windfall tax from 25% to 35% in the recent budget statement. This follows Shell announcing they are reviewing their position a couple of weeks ago.

INEOS have signed a long term deal to import 1.4mtpa US LNG into Europe, likely destined for Germany. However this will not commence until 2027.

Early this morning the IFA2 electricity interconnector between France and the UK suffered an unplanned outage.

The latest overnight long term temperature forecast shows a deeper dip in the 6-16th December than the run from Monday with average temperatures staying below seasonal normal until mid-January.

Yesterday saw the TTF January contract settle at €139.26 (from €146.40) and the NBP November contract at 344.20p (from 369.65p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 327mcm from Norway (324). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.3mcm (38.3) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Flows on Nord Stream are now a likely physical impossibility. Gas storage showing at 92.08% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 11.

This morning we see the January TTF contract at €140, UP €1 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF January €140, Summer €140 (vs €139 and €145)
Curve NBP January 344p, Summer 341p (vs 370p and 354p)
UK Gas NBP spot 320p (from 350p).
UK Power DA £325 (from £345).

UK power prices show the UK January Baseload contract at £540 (£548) and Summer at £304 (£307).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $87 ($87) and EUAs are at €85 (€85). Henry Hub is at $6.74 ($6.93) and JKM is at $33.78 ($33.31).