Market Insight
Tony Jordan
14 December 2022

Market Insights 14/12/2022

Not a great deal of movement to close the week with the curve staying fairly level on Friday. We do however see a rise in spot prices as the cold weather starts to take hold.

Friday saw Germany announce its cabinet approve a price brake for its gas and power prices. This comes as the EU still grapple with a price cap idea that has been discussed for many weeks now.

This week sees the close of the December contract and we then break into Q1 with January being the front month contract.

Friday saw the TTF December contract settle at €124.37 (from €123.79) and the NBP November contract at 288.46p (from 291.69p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 327mcm from Norway (338). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 41.4mcm (37.3) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Flows on Nord Stream are now a likely physical impossibility. Gas storage showing at 93.94% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 13.

This morning we see the December TTF contract at €126, UP €2 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF December €126, Summer €131 (vs €126 and €130)
Curve NBP December 288p, Summer 312p (vs 292p and 310p)
UK Gas NBP spot 225p (from 144p).
UK Power DA £317 (from £145).

UK power prices show the UK December Baseload contract at £310 (£300) and Summer at £270 (£272).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $84 ($85) and EUAs are at €79 (€78). Henry Hub is at $7.02 ($7.31) and JKM is at $29.96 ($31.12).