Market Insight
Tony Jordan
11 December 2022

Market Insights 10/12/2022

A mixed bag yesterday with small movements overall seen across the board.

The latest weather runs show some warmer temperatures to be expected to finish November before sticking close to seasonal normal throughout December and into January.

Whilst the UK and Europe continue to talk around plans for LNG deals, China push ahead by signing a 27 year deal with Qatar, reportedly worth $60bn – stepping up competition for what is likely to be the replacement for Russian piped gas for years to come.

The reactions to last weeks Autumn Statement are starting to show with companies such as Shell announcing to Sky News it is reviewing its recent £25bn investment plan in light of increased exposure to taxes. Electricity generators are also doing the same with a new exposure to a 45% levy for the next five years. The Government expect this to raise some £14bn annually, but it seems clear this will unlikely be met as companies change course to avoid such exposures.

Yesterday saw the TTF December contract settle at €116.13 (from €115.51) and the NBP November contract at 268.99p (from 271.51p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 319mcm from Norway (339). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.4mcm (40.3) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Flows on Nord Stream are now a likely physical impossibility. Gas storage showing at 95.04% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 14.

This morning we see the December TTF contract at €119, UP €3 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF December €119, Summer €124 (vs €116 and €123)
Curve NBP December 269p, Summer 295p (vs 272p and 290p)
UK Gas NBP spot 100p (from 95p).
UK Power DA £177 (from £141).

UK power prices show the UK December Baseload contract at £270 (£264) and Summer at £258 (£256).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $87 ($88) and EUAs are at €75 (€72). Henry Hub is at $6.78 ($6.30) and JKM is at $26.30 ($26.39).