Market Insight
Tony Jordan
8 December 2022

Market Insights 08/12/2022

Markets continued to show some stability to start the week, with the warmer than normal weather expected to continue into late November meaning we are less likely to need those almost full to the brim stocks across Europe just yet.

In addition we also have a healthy queue of LNG cargoes heading towards Europe with more than a dozen towards the UK. Last night it was reported that the UK will announce a deal with the US for around 10bcm of LNG to be delivered over the next year, the details of which will be disclosed in the next week or two. However it remains unclear as to how much of that 10bcm will land this winter as we still await official word from Freeport LNG on its planned restart any day now.

Yesterday saw the TTF December contract settle at €109.68 (from €114.79) and the NBP November contract at 267.44p (from 283.03p).

Oseberg on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 314mcm from Norway (313). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.7mcm (36.6) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Flows on Nord Stream are now a likely physical impossibility. Gas storage showing at 95.30% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 16.

This morning we see the December TTF contract at €113, UP €3 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF December €113, Summer €121 (vs €110 and €123)
Curve NBP December 267p, Summer 278p (vs 283p and 290p)
UK Gas NBP spot 90p (from 80p).
UK Power DA £82 (from £92).

UK power prices show the UK December Baseload contract at £300 (£315) and Summer at £252 (£260).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $98 ($99) and EUAs are at €77 (€76). Henry Hub is at $6.94 ($6.40) and JKM is at $27.20 ($28.93).