Market Insight
Tony Jordan
2 December 2022

Market Insights 02/12/2022

Another bearish session yesterday despite comments around the future of energy supply.

These mostly came from Ursula von der Leyen who said the EU could fall some 30bcm short for next summers storage injection season, citing three main risks …. Total loss of Russian gas, competitive Asian LNG market and also the lack of capacity to take increased levels of LNG.

Comments were also made around the impact of a windfall tax on UK North Sea investment which would also potentially see lesser impact taken in this area.

Yesterday saw the TTF December contract settle at €113.14 (from €118.15) and the NBP November contract at 270.87p (from 283.81p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 316mcm from Norway (312). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.2mcm (36.7) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Flows on Nord Stream are now a likely physical impossibility. Gas storage showing at 95.36% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 16.

This morning we see the December TTF contract at €113, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF December €113, Summer €120 (vs €113 and €126)
Curve NBP December 271p, Summer 281p (vs 284p and 293p)
UK Gas NBP spot 95p (from 105p).
UK Power DA £85 (from £111).

UK power prices show the UK December Baseload contract at £277 (£293) and Summer at £250 (£250).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $93 ($95) and EUAs are at €73 (€76). Henry Hub is at $5.87 ($6.14) and JKM is at $27.73 ($27.88).