Market Insight
Tony Jordan
2 December 2022

Market Insights 03/12/2022

A weak end to the week with plenty of bearish momentum.

However a fire on the Norwegian Asgard oil and gas platform results in further unplanned outages, according to Gassco ASFreeport LNG put out a short official statement in an attempt to quash the rumour mill that exports will be further delayed by two months to January – but did not correct the rumours.

In the UK, the formal approval of Octopus Energy‘s takeover of Bulb has been pushed back due to ‘significant concerns’. This comes just after the companys administrators, Teneo, had their costs not fully reimbursed and subject to some further scrutiny.

Meanwhile the governments Public Accounts Committee issued a scathing report on Ofgem, citing its inability to properly protect consumers after it reported the cost of last years multiple supplier failures to have cost £2.7bn, or £94 per household, with further sums to come. Based on what we know about Bulb, it could be a similar amount again. Ofgem attempted to brush off the criticism.

Friday saw the TTF December contract settle at €97.85 (from €113.45) and the NBP November contract at 228.43p (from 266.39p).

Asgard and Visund on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 308mcm from Norway (314). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36 .8mcm (38.8) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Flows on Nord Stream are now a likely physical impossibility. Gas storage showing at 95.51% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 18.

This morning we see the December TTF contract at €104, UP €6 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF December €104, Summer €108 (vs €113 and €121)
Curve NBP December 228p, Summer 246p (vs 266p and 280p)
UK Gas NBP spot 120p (from 95p).
UK Power DA £146 (from £73).

UK power prices show the UK December Baseload contract at £253 (£269) and Summer at £227 (£246).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $96 ($94) and EUAs are at €76 (€73). Henry Hub is at $5.88 ($6.24) and JKM is at $27.23 ($27.55).