Market Insight
Tony Jordan
1 December 2022

Market Insights – 01/12/2022

Markets took a turn yesterday to show some upside after several days of downside momentum.

This came as reports emerged that the prolonged discussion around a potential price cap in Europe was described as ‘impossible’ with several member states appearing to threaten blocking elements of any proposed energy deal as a result. Further talks are expected into next week.

Yesterday saw the TTF December contract settle at €118.15 (from €109.68) and the NBP November contract at 283.81p (from 267.44p).

Oseberg on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 312mcm from Norway (314). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.7mcm (36.7) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Flows on Nord Stream are now a likely physical impossibility. Gas storage showing at 95.35% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 15.

This morning we see the December TTF contract at €115, DOWN €3 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF December €115, Summer €126 (vs €110 and €121)
Curve NBP December 284p, Summer 293p (vs 267p and 278p)
UK Gas NBP spot 105p (from 90p).
UK Power DA £111 (from £82).

UK power prices show the UK December Baseload contract at £293 (£300) and Summer at £250 (£252).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $95 ($98) and EUAs are at €76 (€77). Henry Hub is at $6.14 ($6.94) and JKM is at $27.88 ($27.20).